Thai Economic Performance Update 2024 and 2025 Outlook

The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) reported the Thai economy in the fourth quarter of 2024 expanded by 3.2% y-o-y, accelerating from 3.0% in the third quarter. After seasonally adjusted, the economy increased by 0.4% from the third quarter of 2024. 

In 2024, the economy grew by 2.5% driven mainly by consumption and public investment. Exports of goods had rebounded but that did not yet fully translate into an improvement in the manufacturing sector, possibly because inventories remained high both for industrial and agricultural products. The agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector returned to growth in the last quarter of 2024, after declining for four consecutive quarters. The accommodation and food services, as well as transportation activities expanded strongly in line with the recovery in the tourism sector.

The Thai economy is expected to gain momentum in 2025 from stronger domestic demand and fiscal stimulus. Growth is projected to reach 2.3 – 3.3%, supported by increased investment, higher budget disbursement and the implementation of infrastructure projects. Tourism and private consumption will remain key drivers, though their growth may slow. In addition, goods exports are projected to moderate slightly due to expected softer growth in the US and China.

Nevertheless, the economy is facing both internal and external challenges. The country continues to struggle with a high level of household debt (around 90% of GDP), hampering consumption and many business sectors such as automotive because financial institutions are more cautious about credit standards. Intensifying trade protectionism trend could also slow export growth, especially in the second half, and pressure the competitiveness of Thai products in both domestic and global markets.

For more info, please see:

• NESDC: Macroeconomic Planning
• Bank of Thailand: Business Outlook Report
• The World Bank: Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor Report

The Netherlands-Thailand Trade and Investment

Trade in goods

Thailand is the 3rd largest trading partner and destination of Dutch merchandise exports to ASEAN (after Singapore and Vietnam). Thailand has a trade surplus over the Netherlands. In 2024, the value of merchandise trade between the Netherlands and Thailand was 8.7 billion EUR, increasing 36.1% from 2023. This was driven by the Dutch imports from Thailand, which hiked 61.0% from 4.2 billion EUR in 2023 to 6.7 billion EUR in 2024. On the contrary, the Dutch exports to Thailand declined 11.1% from 2.2 billion EUR in 2023 to around 2.0 billion EUR in 2024. 

The Netherlands’ trade with ASEAN in 2024 (Change of ownership basis, million euros)

Source: CBS, provisional figures

Considering Thailand’s main import items from the Netherlands, a drop was recorded in the import of electronic integrated circuits (-0.7%), machinery and parts (-24.2%), medicinal and pharmaceutical products (-8.3%), milk and dairy products (-6.3%), and vegetables (-5.4%). Meanwhile, some products experienced a strong growth such as metal waste scrap (15.6%), other raw materials and semifinished products (12.0%), animals and animal products (79.7%), and fertilizer and pesticide (37.4%).

As for Thailand major export items to the Netherlands, a significant increase was seen in most industrial items including computers and parts (35.9%), electrical transformers (19.3%), other electrical equipment and parts (8.4%), and teleprinters and telephone sets (31.7%). The exceptions were electronic integrated circuits (-26.6%), lenses (-7.5%), and machinery and parts (-14.4%). Key agricultural products such as rubber products and prepared poultry also expanded (5.3% and 4.8%, respectively). 

Trade in services 

Unlike trade in goods, the Netherlands has a trade surplus over Thailand on trade in services. For the first three quarters of 2024, the bilateral trade in services was 895 million EUR, growing 7.7% from 831 million EUR recorded in the same period of 2023. The Netherlands exported 533 million EUR of services to Thailand, expanding 4.7%. On the other hand, the Netherlands imported 362 million EUR of services from Thailand, rising 12.4%.
Principal Dutch service exports to Thailand were: business services which include technical and trade related services and professional and management consulting services; charges for the use of intellectual property; travel; and telecommunications, computer and information services. 

For the main Dutch service imports from Thailand, they were: (personal) travel; technical, trade related services; professional and management consulting services; and transport services. 

Investment 

According to the Bank of Thailand’s statistics, the Netherlands is the biggest EU source of foreign direct investment in Thailand, and has recently become no. 4 globally (following Japan, Singapore, and Hong Kong). As at the end of the third quarter of 2024, cumulative direct investment from the Netherlands to Thailand was 23.8 billion USD (approx. 22.8 billion EUR), accounting for 6.8% of total foreign direct investment in Thailand and 55.8% from the EU.

The Netherlands is also the largest EU destination for Thai Direct Investment (TDI) overseas and no. 3 globally, after Hong Kong and Singapore. As at the end of the third quarter of 2024, accumulated TDI in the Netherlands was 16.8 billion USD (approx. 16.0 billion EUR), representing 8.0% of total TDI abroad and 70.8% to the EU