Thai Economic Performance in 2025 and Outlook for 2026

The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) reported the Thai economy in the fourth quarter of 2025 expanded by 2.5% y-o-y, accelerating from 1.2% in the previous quarter. After being seasonally adjusted, the economy increased by 1.9% from the third quarter of 2025.

In 2025, the economy expanded by 2.4% driven mainly by strong export growth to avoid impacts of the US reciprocal tariffs and the pickup of investment particularly in the last quarter, both for public infrastructure and private spending in machinery and equipment. The manufacturing and construction sectors returned to expansion in the fourth quarter, while the agricultural sector and tourism related activities (food services and accommodation) decelerated.

Thailand’s GDP in 2025 amounted to US$ 577 billion, increasing from US$529 billion in 2024. GDP per capita averaged at US$ 8,200.9, up from US$ 7,539.3 in 2024. The unemployment rate stood at 0.81%, average inflation was -0.1%, and the current account recorded a surplus of 3.1% of GDP. At the end of December 2025, the international reserve stood at US$ 281.9 billion, accounting for 65.6 % of GDP.

The Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) also reported a record high of investment applications in 2025,  totalling US$ 60.2 billion across 3,370 projects, marking a 67% increase in value and an 11% rise in number of projects compared to 2024. Of that amount, US$ 43.6 billion was foreign direct investment mostly in digital and advanced industries.

The results of the general elections on 8 February that indicate the clear win of the current ruling Bhumjaithai Party has given positive sentiment in terms of policy continuity and political stability. Nonetheless, the economic momentum is likely to slow down in the first half of 2026, given that the new government will not take office and present downside risks as geopolitical rifts have intensified.

Overall, the Thai economy is expected to grow around 2% in 2026, supported by continued expansion in consumption and private investment, higher government expenditure, a recovery in tourism and related services, and adequate water supply for agricultural production.

If BOI-approved projects materialize, Thailand could see a broader economic recovery and growth comparable to regional peers. The country retains strategic strengths on geographic positioning established supply chains, and good supportive infrastructure.

However, several risks remain. Besides external factors such as the global economic uncertainties and changes in trade dynamics, Thailand continues to struggle domestically with structural constraints, including weakening competitiveness in the manufacturing and tourism sectors, elevated household debt, transitioning to an aged society, and declining public sector efficiency.

For more information, please see:

• NESDC: Thai Economic Performance Reports

• Bank of Thailand: Thai Economy Conditions, Indicators and Outlook

• The World Bank: Thailand Economic Monitor Reports

The Netherlands-Thailand Trade and Investment

Trade in Goods

Thailand is the 3rd largest trading partner and destination of Dutch merchandise exports to ASEAN (after Singapore and Vietnam). Thailand has a trade surplus over the Netherlands. In 2025, the value of bilateral trade was EUR 8.9 billion, increasing 1.2% from 2024. This was driven by the Dutch imports from Thailand, which expanded 2.3% from EUR 6.9 billion in 2024 to EUR 7.1 billion in 2025. On the contrary, the Dutch exports to Thailand declined 2.9% from EUR 1.82 billion in 2024 to EUR 1.77 billion in 2024.

The Netherlands’ goods trade with ASEAN in 2025 (Change of ownership basis, million euros)

Source: CBS, provisional figures, updated 5 March 2026

Considering Thailand’s top 10 import items from the Netherlands, products that experienced growth in 2025 were: electronic integrated circuits (0.2%); machinery and parts (34%); medicinal and pharmaceutical products (2%); and scientific, medical, testing appliance (19.2%). Others declined i.e. chemicals (-9%); electrical machinery and parts (-21.6%); metal waste scraps (-3.1%); milk and dairy products (-1.7%); vegetables and vegetable products (-5.5%); and other raw materials and semifinished products (-16.6%).

As for Thailand’s major export items to the Netherlands, agricultural products and food performed well. These included: edible meat and other animal parts (62.5%); prepared poultry (15.5%); and prepared or preserved fruits (96.8%). For industrial products, a significant increase was seen in computers and parts (23.33%); motor cars, parts, and accessories (113.5%); and chemical products (45.3%), while a sharp drop was recorded for other electrical equipment (-18.9%); teleprinters, telephone sets and parts (-33.0%); and motorcycles, parts and accessories (-20.8%).
 

Trade in services

Unlike trade in goods, the Netherlands has a trade surplus over Thailand on trade in services. For the first three quarters of 2025, the bilateral trade in services amounted to EUR 1,163 million, growing 50.1% from EUR 775 million recorded in the same period of 2024. The Netherlands exported EUR 684 million of services to Thailand, expanding 32.8%. On the other hand, the Netherlands imported EUR 479 million of services from Thailand, rising 84.2%.

Principal Dutch service exports to Thailand were: business services which include technical and trade related services, professional and management consulting services and R&D; travel; and charges for the use of intellectual property.

For Dutch service imports from Thailand, the majority was travel (mainly personal which increased significantly), followed by business services and transport services.
 

Investment

According to the Bank of Thailand’s statistics, the Netherlands is the biggest EU source of foreign direct investment in Thailand, and no. 5 globally (following Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong and the U.S.). As at the end of the third quarter of 2025, cumulative direct investment from the Netherlands to Thailand was US$ 23.5 billion (approx. EUR 20.2 billion), accounting for 6.2% of total foreign direct investment in Thailand and 54.5% from the EU. 

The Netherlands is also the largest EU destination for Thai Direct Investment (TDI) overseas and dropped to no. 4 globally (Singapore, Hong Kong, and Indonesia are no. 1, 2, and 3 respectively). As as the end of the third quarter of 2025, accumulated TDI in the Netherlands was US$ 16 billion (approx. EUR 13.9 billion), representing 7.1 of total TDI abroad and 66.1% to the EU.