Thai Economic Performance in the first half of 2026 and Outlook for 2026-27

The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) reported the Thai economy in the second quarter of 2026 grew by 1.9% year-on-year, decelerating from 2.8% in the first quarter. After seasonally adjusted, the economy contracted by 0.2% from the first quarter of 2026. In the first half of 2026, the economy expanded by 2.4%.

The slower economic growth in the second quarter was anticipated due to the Middle East conflict which began in late March. The impact began with the oil crisis before spreading to the cost of goods and the cost of living, as reflected in second-quarter inflation, which rose to 2.7% from a contraction of 0.5% in the first quarter. This caused private consumption growth to slow down.

Thailand’s current account moved into deficit for the first time in eight quarters, recording a shortfall of USD 17.7 billion in the second quarter, equivalent to 12% of GDP. The main reason was a 117% surge in oil imports as the country built up inventories to avoid shortages. Excluding oil and gold imports, Thailand still recorded a current account surplus of USD 9.0 billion.

Exports to most major trading partners continued to expand in the second quarter, including the U.S. (growing 15.2%), ASEAN 5 (Indonesia 7.6%, Malaysia 53.5%, Philippines 13.4%, Singapore 40.8%, Vietnam 22.8%) and the EU (8.9%). In the first half of 2026, total exports of goods (in USD term) grew by 17.6%. Investment also expanded strongly by 9.5%, driven mainly by private investment in machinery and equipment. 

While the export-oriented manufacturing group recorded increases in the production of key products such as computer and parts, rubber tires, and processed fruits, the production of major crops, particularly paddy rice and oil palm declined due to extremely hot weather conditions and prolonged drought. The accommodation and food service activities also decelerated, in line with slower growth in domestic tourist trips and a decline in international tourists. 

Thailand’s economic growth in the third quarter is expected to improve from the second quarter. Factors that weighted on second-quarter GDP, particularly the effects of the Middle East war on supply conditions and global crude oil prices, are expected to ease. 

The Thai economy is projected to expand around 2.3% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. Growth has been stronger than previously anticipated, supported by merchandise exports and private investment associated with the technology and AI cycle, as well as government measures to alleviate the impact of the energy crisis. At the same time, the realized impact of the conflict in the Middle East on the manufacturing and tourism sectors has been less severe than previously assessed, with large businesses demonstrating greater adaptability than anticipated. 

Nevertheless, the overall economic expansion is projected to remain low and uneven. SMEs continue to face limitations in adaptation and are constrained by intense competition. Meanwhile, most households remain under pressure from decelerating income growth and rising living costs, which will weigh on private consumption once government relief measures phase out. The country also faces growing economic challenges from a current account deficit, tight fiscal conditions and uncertainty over trade negotiations with the U.S. 

For more information, please see: 

• NESDC: Thai Economic Performance and Outlook Reports
• Bank of Thailand: Thai Economy Conditions, Indicators and Outlook
• The World Bank: Thailand Economic Monitor Reports

The Netherlands-Thailand Trade and Investment

Trade in goods

Thailand is the 3rd largest ASEAN trading partner of the Netherlands, and has a trade surplus over the Netherlands. From January to June 2026, the value of merchandise trade between the Netherlands and Thailand was around EUR 4.2 billion, increasing 11.3% year-on-year. This was driven by the Dutch imports from Thailand, which increased 13.9% to EUR 4.2 billion, from EUR 3.7 billion in the first half of 2025. On the other hand, the Dutch exports to Thailand grew slightly by 1% to EUR 954 million, from EUR 945 million in the same period of 2025.

The Netherlands’ trade with ASEAN in the first half of 2026 (Change of ownership basis, million euros)

Source: CBS, provisional figures

Thailand’s main import items from the Netherlands in the first half of 2026 included electronic integrated circuits, blood prepared for therapeutic uses, animal feeds, food preparations, pharmaceutical goods, fertilisers, milk and cream, tractors, medicaments, and machinery or laboratory equipment.

Thailand’s major export items to the Netherlands were telephone sets, printing machinery, computers and parts, electrical transformers, electronic integrated circuits, meat offal, transmission for radio-broadcasting or television, motorcycles, rubber tires, and optical fibers. 

Trade in services

Unlike trade in goods, the Netherlands has a trade surplus over Thailand on trade in services. For the first quarter of 2026, the bilateral trade in services was EUR 480 million, growing 3.0% from EUR 466 million recorded in the same period of 2025. The Netherlands exported EUR 277 million of services to Thailand, declining 5.5%. On the other hand, the Netherlands imported EUR 203 million of services from Thailand, rising 17.3%.

Principal Dutch service exports to Thailand were: business services which include technical and trade related services, professional and management consulting services and R&D; telecommunications, computer and information services; and travel. 

For the main Dutch service imports from Thailand, they were: travel (mainly personal); business services; and transport services.

Investment

According to the Bank of Thailand’s latest statistics, the Netherlands is the largest source of EU investment in Thailand and becomes no. 4 globally (following Singapore, Japan, and Hong Kong). As at the end of the first quarter of 2026, cumulative direct investment from the Netherlands to Thailand was USD 27.9 billion (approx. EUR 24.0 billion), increasing from USD 24.5 billion at the end of 2025. This amount accounts for 6.9% of total foreign direct investment in Thailand and 58.4% from the EU.

The Netherlands is also the largest EU destination for Thai Direct Investment (TDI) overseas and no. 3 globally (after Singapore and Hong Kong). As at the end of the first quarter of 2026, accumulated TDI in the Netherlands was USD 14.7 billion (approx. EUR 12.6 billion), decreasing slightly from USD 14.8 billion at the end of 2025. It represents 6.6% of total TDI abroad and 60.9% to the EU.