Thai Economic Performance H1 2025 and 2025-2026 Outlook

The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) reported the Thai economy in the second quarter of 2025 grew by 2.8% y-o-y, decelerating from 3.2% in the first quarter. After seasonal adjustment, the economy grew by 0.6% from the first quarter of 2025. 

In the first half of 2025, the economy expanded by 3.0%, thanks to a robust export growth (ahead of the US tariff hike) and accelerating private investment. This led to an increase in the production of capital and technology industries especially motor vehicles, computers and electronic parts, as well as raw material industries such as rubber and plastic products, minerals, and metal products. The agricultural sector also grew steadily, attributable partly to a higher production of fruits, paddy, and fishery. On the other hand, tourism-related activities and consumption slowed down. 

In terms of economic stability, the unemployment rate stood at 0.91% in the second quarter, slightly higher than 0.89% in the first quarter but lower than the 1.07% in the second quarter of 2024. Headline inflation turned negative for the first time in five quarters, at -0.3%. The current account recorded a surplus of US$600 million. At the end of June 2025, international reserves stood at US$262.4 billion, and public debt accounted for 64.2% of GDP. 

Clarity on the US reciprocal tariffs, with Thailand receiving a 19% rate similar to the regional average, helps maintain the country’s competitiveness. It may also encourage firms to relocate production from China to Thailand, reducing direct competition with Vietnam and Indonesia. However, Thai exports are expected to decline from July onwards following a broader slowdown in US imports. 
Amid this global trade policy shifts, weakening exports, slowing consumption and moderating tourism recovery, Thailand’s GDP is expected to expand by less than 2% in 2025 and further slowdown to 1.7% in 2026. The Thai economy is expanding below its potential growth rate of 3% due to structural challenges, including an ageing population, declining competitiveness, and rising debt levels across public entities, corporates, and households. 

The government is promoting investment in new industries to strengthen the economic growth. These include: next-generation automotive; intelligent electronics; advanced agriculture and biotechnology; food for the future; high-value and medical tourism; automation and robotics; aviation and logistics; medical and comprehensive healthcare; biofuel and biochemical; digital; and defense as well as education and human resources development. 

For more info, please see:

• NESDC: Macroeconomic Planning
• Bank of Thailand: Business Outlook Report
• The World Bank: Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor Report

The Netherlands-Thailand Trade and Investment

Trade in goods

Thailand is the 3rd largest ASEAN trading partner of the Netherlands, and has a trade surplus over the Netherlands. From January to June 2025, the value of merchandise trade between the Netherlands and Thailand was around 4.6 billion EUR, increasing 3.4% year-on-year. This was driven by the Dutch imports from Thailand, which increased 5.5% from 3.6 billion EUR in the first half of 2024 to 3.8 billion EUR in the same period of 2025. On the contrary, the Dutch exports to Thailand declined 5.2% from 904 million EUR  to 857 million EUR.

The Netherlands’ trade with ASEAN H1 2025 (Change of ownership basis, million euros)

Source: CBS, provisional figures

Considering Thailand’s main import items from the Netherlands, a drop was recorded in the import of chemicals (-7.4%), some raw materials (-17.5%), some food products (-35.5%), yarn and fibers (-29.6%), pulp and scrap of paper (-5.8%), and animals and their products (-28.3%). Meanwhile, some products experienced a strong growth such as machinery and parts (48.7%), including electrical ones (42.8%), milk and dairy products (46.5%), as well as vegetables and vegetable products (23.4%). 

As for Thailand’s major export items to the Netherlands, an increase was recorded for the top five product categories, namely computers and parts (18.9%), electrical transformers and parts (8.3%), other electrical equipment and parts (24.2%), electronic integrated circuits (8.0%), and meat and edible animal parts (55.0%). Principal exports that dropped significantly were teleprinters and telephone sets (-43.7%), machinery and parts (-29.5%), rubber products (-16.3%), and motorcycles and parts (-33.3%).

Trade in services 

Unlike trade in goods, the Netherlands has a trade surplus over Thailand on trade in services. For the first quarter of 2025, the bilateral trade in services was 370 million EUR, growing 14.6% from 323 million EUR recorded in the same period of 2024. The Netherlands exported 198 million EUR of services to Thailand, expanding 4.2%. On the other hand, the Netherlands imported 172 million EUR of services from Thailand, rising 29.3%.

Principal Dutch service exports to Thailand were: business services, which include technical and trade related services, professional and management consulting services, and R&D; telecommunications, computer and information services; and travel. 

For the main Dutch service imports from Thailand, they were: travel (mainly personal); business services; and transport services.

Investment 

According to the Bank of Thailand’s statistics, the Netherlands is the biggest EU source of foreign direct investment in Thailand, and no. 6 globally (following Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, the US and China). At the end of the first quarter of 2025, cumulative direct investment from the Netherlands to Thailand was 18.6 billion USD (approx. 16.0 billion EUR), declining from 23.0 billion USD at the end of 2024. This amount accounts for 5.7% of total foreign direct investment in Thailand and 49.9% from the EU.

The Netherlands is also the largest EU destination for Thai Direct Investment (TDI) overseas and no. 3 globally (after Hong Kong and Singapore). At the end of the first quarter of 2025, accumulated TDI in the Netherlands was 16.5 billion USD (approx. 14.2 billion EUR), increasing slightly from 16.3 billion USD at the end of 2024. It represents 7.9% of total TDI abroad and 68.4% to the EU.